 | My wife said to me one, “Film, film, film. If you were any more intense, you’d be a black hole. A singularity,” she said. “No light escapes. |
Previously on Skandalon: Point Omega
| _What is The Singularity?_ The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): - The development of computers that are “awake” and superhumanly intelligent. (To date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is “yes, we can”, then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter. - Large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity. - Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent. - Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect. The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out the AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for the last thirty years. Just so I’m not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me more specific: I’ll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.) |
About Vernor Vinge: “Vernor Steffen Vinge (born October 2, 1944 in Waukesha, Wisconsin, U.S.) is a retired San Diego State University Professor of Mathematics, computer scientist, and science fiction author. He is best known for his Hugo Award-winning novels and novellas A Fire Upon the Deep (1992), A Deepness in the Sky (1999), Rainbows End (2006), Fast Times at Fairmont High (2002) and The Cookie Monster (2004), as well as for his 1993 essay “The Coming Technological Singularity”, in which he argues that exponential growth in technology will reach a point beyond which we cannot even speculate about the consequences.” (Wikipedia).
Read also a summary of Vinge’s thought about a future without the Singularity
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Published in Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking Adult, 2005 (graph appears on p.19, description is p.18-20 plus notes on p.501-502).
Description: “Fifteen views of evolution: When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of key events in human history show an exponential trend. Graphed by Ray Kurzweil, based on lists compiled by Theodore Modis, who “attempted to develop a precise mathematical law that governs the evolution of change and complexity in the Universe”. To reduce bias, Modis compiled thirteen multiple independent lists of major events in the history of biology and technology (…)” (to see the 15 lists, follow the link).
